Range of forecasts Indeed, the jury is still out on whether the dream goal of 1.5m new homes across the country is achievable. In November, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted that 1.3m homes will be built across the UK over the course of the current parliament (Labour’s target of 1.5m is for England alone). Removing new homes built in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, based on historical norms, reduces the OBR’s forecast for England to 1.1m new homes. Savills’ projections are even lower at 203,000 new homes per year – unless the government introduces incentives such as a new-style of Help to Buy scheme or more shared ownership. The government refutes the OBR’s projections on the grounds that they do not take into account a prospective overhaul of the planning system, or its new towns initiative. The new homes plan involves large-scale new communities of at least 10,000 properties, some built on greenfield land, but most being urban extensions and urban regeneration schemes. A taskforce has been set up and asked to publish a shortlist of possible locations within a year. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework include encouragement for councils to release ‘greybelt’ land – previously-developed land in the greenbelt – for development and greater freedoms for adjusting greenbelt boundaries, while Rayner has also promised around 300 more planning officers across the country to speed up the notoriously glacial pace of planning application processing. Questions remain Obviously it is early days, and the government needs time to get all its ducks in a row. But progress does feel rather slow. The ‘decade-old data’ used to calculate housing targets which Rayner refers to won’t be updated overnight. Training a planning officer takes anything from two to five years. Once permissions are granted, building out a development also takes at least a year. And that is without considering the welldocumented shortages of skilled labour and building materials the construction industry has suffered for some years now. There are also questions to be asked about the required changes to how the housing budget is spent, which could require a radical change in policy. In the halcyon days of peak council housing of 1975/76, under a Labour government, the total housing budget was £22.3bn, with 95% spent on building homes and improving existing stock. In 2021/22, adjusting for inflation, the total was £30.5bn, but with a staggering 88% spent on local housing allowance (£26.8bn). In other words, due to changes in housing policy over the last 50 years, the vast majority of spending on housing has shifted from the supply side (providing property) to the demand side (supporting rents). Ambitious building targets, accountable councils and slicker planning processes are all well and good, but the government will face a huge challenge in finding the additional funding to build new homes whilst continuing to support those who continue to need help with their current housing costs. That could be a tricky path to navigate successfully, particularly within the four and a half years or so of the remaining parliament. 09 WINTER MORTGAGE NEWSLETTER
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjI4MjU4NQ==