2029 to 2030, which would be a marked rise on recent delivery. Clearly this will determine whether the Government makes its 1.5 million new home target in this Parliament. And on mortgage pricing, the OBR expects the average mortgage interest rate across the stock of loans to rise from about 3.7% in 2024 to around 5% by 2029. That is interesting in itself, because rates of course have been coming down, but nowhere near the level we saw in the post-pandemic market. Put together, this paints a picture of a steady market. Not a sudden upswing, not a downturn, but a market with real volume and with long-term demand still in place. The question is not whether the business is there, it is who controls it. Despite this “rosy” picture there are some potential headwinds for 2026, I think it is clear some lenders have pushed the FCA hard, and will continue to do so, for more freedom to deal with customers regardless of where they have originated from. The removal of the advice interaction trigger for existing borrowers is proof they have been successful. That rule signposted consumers to advisers, it has now gone. The FCA’s recent Discussion Paper also talks at length about more direct contact with consumers. It gives the impression that AI-driven mortgage journeys are acceptable, as long as the outcome looks reasonable. At the same time, we are seeing more direct targeting from the big lenders. Emails, letters and texts are going out to existing borrowers well ahead of renewal dates. These messages do not mention advice. They do not mention the adviser who placed the original loan. Banking apps are an even bigger issue. They let lenders push product offers straight to customers’ phones, with no reference to advice at all. A client can accept a deal in seconds before you even know the renewal window has opened. 05 MORTGAGE NEWSLETTER Continued on next page... We are also seeing a widening of dual pricing. Some direct or selected routes now offer sharper rates that advisers cannot access, and we should be clear: this will not fade away. The largest lenders want to keep more margin in-house. They see adviser commission as a huge cost. They are already changing their behaviour to pay less and keep more control. That is why early contact with your clients, and strong support from Paradigm is so important. Christine Newell our Technical Director and I were talking recently about the value of Paradigm to our broker partners, I have para-phrased her response here but I thought it might be of interest, and also demonstrate how we want to work with and for you in order you can compete in 2026. “It's sometimes really difficult to convey to an audience the value of Paradigm and how we can and will support you. Yes we can wax lyrical about what we do and the business proposition. These are all good things but they are a list of ingredients, to understand what they taste like you have to try us out when you have a commercial opportunity or issue. We listen to you and have done from the conception of Paradigm in 2007 to now. Our Building Society hub came from a broker suggestion. If you think something would be good and help you build your businesses then tell us. When you have a big problem we sit with you and draw on our industry relationships to get the right outcome for you and your clients. You can ring any of the senior team here, we don't have any airs or graces above our station Your success is our success. Cliche yes! But working to that principle has stood us out from the crowd and eventually led us to your door”. There have been some interesting developments in terms of the Bank of England looking at the financial viability of Protection providers and Private Equity firms which I think merits visibility and thought in your thinking. Clearly we need institutions that lend money and provide assurance in terms of cover to be robust
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